Morgan Stanley Revises 2024 Oil Demand Growth Outlook
Morgan Stanley, one of the world’s leading financial institutions, has made adjustments to its 2024 oil demand growth forecast in response to China’s economic challenges. As the second-largest oil consumer globally, China’s sluggish recovery and weaker demand for oil-related products have prompted the bank to reduce its previous estimate.
According to Morgan Stanley’s revised outlook, global oil demand is now expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024. This represents a decrease from the earlier projection of 1.6 million bpd. The move comes as concerns mount over China’s ability to act as a significant driver of global oil consumption.
China’s economic headwinds, including the struggle of its property sector and slower export growth, have played a substantial role in shaping the global oil demand outlook. These factors have contributed to a slower pace of industrial output and dampened demand for oil-related products within the country.
However, Morgan Stanley also emphasized the influence of energy efficiency improvements and the growing trend towards cleaner energy alternatives. These factors are increasingly impacting the global oil market and further lowering the demand for traditional oil. The rising popularity of electric vehicles and the expansion of renewable energy initiatives are contributing to a deceleration in the growth of oil consumption for the foreseeable future.
Despite the lowered forecast, Morgan Stanley has drawn attention to the potential for tight global oil markets in 2024, particularly if OPEC+ continues its production cuts. While demand growth is expected to moderate due to various factors, limitations on the supply-side could continue to drive higher oil prices in the coming years.
In conclusion, Morgan Stanley’s revision of its 2024 oil demand growth outlook highlights the significant influence that China’s economic challenges and the global shift towards cleaner energy sources have on the oil market. The bank’s adjustment reflects the complex relationship between economic factors, technological advancements, and environmental concerns. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for businesses and investors operating within the oil industry.
